Building a championship-winning fantasy basketball team demands more than just the luck of the draft. It requires a balanced mix of strategy, knowledge, and calculated risk-taking. As the new season approaches, fantasy managers should weigh player consistency, past performance, and the ability to withstand a grueling schedule.
Player Consistency and Availability
Joel Embiid is a fantasy conundrum. The All-Star center is projected to average more than 60 fantasy points per game, similar to his last season's performance of 61 fantasy points per game. However, his durability is a significant concern. Embiid has never played more than 68 games in a season, and last year, he managed only 39 games. This inconsistency makes him a high-risk, high-reward option.
On the other hand, Nikola Jokic offers a stark contrast in reliability. Jokic played 79 games last season and has never played fewer than 69 games in his career. This durability, combined with his stellar all-around game, makes him a dependable cornerstone for any fantasy team.
Veteran Presence and Longevity
LeBron James and Anthony Davis are two names that often come up in fantasy discussions, but their value is not as straightforward as it once was. James played 71 games last season, but his average over the previous three seasons was a concerning 52 games. As he turns 40 this season, fantasy managers must weigh his legendary status against the potential for missed games.
Similarly, Anthony Davis has had his share of injury woes, averaging just 44 games over the previous three seasons before suiting up for 76 games last year. Davis has only managed to play more than 70 games in consecutive seasons once in his 12-year career, making him another risky pick.
Kevin Durant's reliability has also been tested over his long career. Entering his 18th NBA season at 36 years old, Durant played 75 games last year. While his scoring and veteran presence remain assets, his age and accumulated wear-and-tear could be challenging for fantasy managers banking on his availability.
Youthful Potential and Volatility
Ja Morant is a rising star with a mixed fantasy outlook. The 25-year-old guard missed 73 games last season due to suspension and injury but has averaged impressive stats of 26.7 points per game (PPG), 7.5 assists per game (APG), and 5.8 rebounds per game (RPG) over the past three seasons. While his talent is undeniable, the off-court issues and injury history make him a volatile pick.
Zion Williamson represents another high-risk, high-reward player. Despite averaging 26.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 4.0 APG between the 2020-21 and 2022-23 seasons, he played only 90 of 236 possible regular-season games during that period. Last season, Williamson played a career-high 70 games and showcased his scoring prowess with a 27.1 PPG average over a 10-game stretch late in the season. However, his past injury history can't be ignored.
Recent Performers to Watch
Kyrie Irving remains one of the most talented guards in the league, averaging 26.7 PPG with shooting splits of 49.3% from the field, 39.9% from beyond the arc, and 91.2% from the free-throw line over his last five seasons. However, his availability is a significant concern as he has averaged just 44.2 games per season over that span. Last season, he ranked 22nd in fantasy points per game but only 47th in total fantasy points, reflecting his limited game count.
Kawhi Leonard had a relatively healthy run last season, playing in 68 games and finishing with the 27th-most fantasy points in the league. However, he missed 12 of the Clippers' last 14 games, including the playoffs, due to knee issues. Leonard's performance when healthy is top-tier, but his recurring knee problems make him a risky investment.
As fantasy managers prepare for their drafts, the key takeaway is balancing top-tier talent with durability and availability. Players like Joel Embiid, Ja Morant, and Kyrie Irving offer high ceilings but come with significant risks, while more reliable options like Nikola Jokic provide steady output with fewer surprises. Making informed, calculated choices is the cornerstone of building a championship-winning fantasy basketball team.