The NBA Rookie of the Year award has historically favored top-tier scorers, often those picked highest in the draft. Reviewing the last decade, it's evident that rookies who led their class in scoring had a significant edge in securing the coveted honor. Indeed, five of the last ten winners were also the top scorers among their peers, demonstrating the league's leaning towards immediate offensive contributions.
Further illustrating the trend, half of the past 16 recipients of the Rookie of the Year award have been No. 1 overall picks. However, the award is not solely reserved for top picks. Notable exceptions include players like Damian Lillard and Malcolm Brogdon, who defied their draft positions by making an immediate impact on the court. That said, it’s still rare for winners to emerge from outside the top five picks, making these cases particularly extraordinary.
A Challenging Year for Big Men
The dominance of guards and forwards in winning the Rookie of the Year award has become pronounced, especially in light of recent draft classes. Since 2003, only four big men—Emeka Okafor, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Victor Wembanyama—have captured the award. This year's draft class appears similarly challenging for big men, with the top two picks being termed as 'projects' and not occupying the guard position.
The case of Reed Sheppard, the highest-picked guard in the 2024 draft class, underscores the hurdles ahead. Despite being seen as a necessary addition to Houston for his shooting skills, Sheppard faces intense competition within the team's backcourt lineup, potentially hindering his Rookie of the Year prospects.
Shooting Struggles for Other Notables
Several promising rookies will need to overcome their shooting woes to stand out. Stephon Castle, for instance, shot a mere 26.7% from beyond the arc at UConn. Similarly, Ron Holland managed only a 23.9% success rate on 3-point shots in the G-League. Perhaps most concerning is Alex Sarr, who hit just 19.1% during the Summer League—a statistic that significantly dampens his Rookie of the Year aspirations. As a Washington player, Sarr faces an additional challenge: "Playing for Washington kills Sarr’s candidacy because he has nobody to set him up."
Pathways to Playing Time
Other rookies might find their opportunities curtailed by established players. Zach Edey, on the other hand, seems relatively certain to start for the Memphis Grizzlies and is expected to model his game on Jonas Valanciunas, offering a clearer path to significant playing time. Meanwhile, those like Rob Dillingham, drafted by the Timberwolves as a future replacement for Mike Conley, may require more time to make an impact.
Portland's Donovan Clingan faces a steep climb in the presence of Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III, while Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels are competing with rookie Zaccharie Risacher for forward positions on Trae Young’s team. Similarly, Isaiah Collier finds himself blocked by Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson, while Dalton Knecht's opportunities on the Lakers are limited by the presence of Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell.
Long Shots and Unexpected Contenders
In a year that is widely considered to be among the least promising in NBA draft history, some long shots could still surprise. Brandin Podziemski and Jaime Jaquez Jr. received votes beyond the lottery in the previous season, though neither seriously contended for the top rookie honor. This year's landscape may provide a more favorable setting for similar unexpected contenders, especially given the perceived weaknesses of the draft class.
The Rookie of the Year race often reflects broader league trends, rewarding immediate impact and scoring prowess. As the 2024 season unfolds, these rookies will have to navigate competition, team dynamics, and their own development to become the standout player of their class.