Preview: Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals
This Friday evening, Nationals Park will be the battlefield as the Cincinnati Reds take on the Washington Nationals, with the first pitch scheduled for 6:45 PM ET. The matchup features two teams with contrasting seasons but similar recent struggles, making for an intriguing contest.
The Cincinnati Reds enter the game with a season record of 47-50, situated in 4th place in the NL Central. They trail the Milwaukee Brewers by eight games and face a crucial stretch to close the gap. Despite their position, the Reds have a strong betting advantage for the upcoming game, favored to win against the Nationals.
The Washington Nationals, with a record of 44-53, mirror the Reds' standing by also occupying 4th place in their division, the NL East. However, they find themselves a daunting 18.5 games behind the Phillies. The Nationals are marked as underdogs at +105, albeit with a projected 62% chance of victory.
Pitching Matchup
Frankie Montas will take the mound for the Reds. Montas has had an up-and-down season with a 4-7 record and a 4.38 ERA across 17 starts. His last outing saw him give up five earned runs in seven innings against the Colorado Rockies. The Reds will be looking for a more controlled performance from Montas as he strives to find his rhythm.
On the other side, Patrick Corbin gets the start for the Nationals. Corbin’s season has also been tumultuous; he holds a 4-9 record with a 5.57 ERA across 19 starts. Notably, Corbin has surrendered at least one home run in each of his last four outings. However, he showcased his potential when he pitched seven scoreless innings on June 24th. The Nationals will hope Corbin can replicate that performance and achieve his projected five strikeouts in the game.
Team Form and Key Players
The Reds have displayed strong form on the road with a 4-1 record over their last five away games. Though they are 5-5 when playing as favorites, their overall road performance gives them confidence. Their previous game ended in a close 3-2 loss to the Marlins, where Nick Lodolo gave up two earned runs in 4 2/3 innings, and Elly De La Cruz hit a home run in the first inning.
In contrast, the Nationals have struggled at home, posting a 2-3 record over their last five games. Overall, they have a 6-4 straight-up record as underdogs and a 5-5 record against the runline in these scenarios. Despite losing their last game against the Brewers 9-3, the Nationals managed to win two of the three games in their most recent series.
Offensively, the Reds are averaging 4.5 runs per game, ranking them 14th in the league. Spencer Steer has been a notable performer, driving in 60 runs and hitting 15 home runs, placing him 10th in RBIs across MLB. Their batting average of .231 ranks them 17th in on-base percentage but 25th in strikeouts, indicating areas of improvement that could be critical for their playoff push.
The Nationals have struggled to generate consistent offense, averaging 4.1 runs per game, placing them 23rd in the league. At home, they fare slightly better, averaging 4.2 runs per game. CJ Abrams has been the standout player, leading the team with 15 home runs and 48 RBIs, although he has hit a rough patch, going 3/21 in his last five games. The Nationals' batting average of .239 and 13th rank in on-base percentage reflect a team that can get on base but struggles to convert those opportunities into runs.
Betting Insights
The betting lines for the game set the over/under at nine runs. Historically, the Reds have a 2-16-3 record when the over/under is set at nine runs, while the Nationals have a more balanced 7-7-2 record in similar conditions. Notable absences from both teams could influence these outcomes; the Reds will miss Joey Gallo, Luke Maile, and Matt McLain, while the Nationals are without Trevor Williams, Josiah Gray, and CJ Abrams.
From a betting perspective, the Reds excel against the run line, boasting a 53-44 record, including an impressive 30-14 performance on the road. The Nationals hold their own as underdogs with a 46-34 record against the runline.
This game promises to be a fascinating contest between two teams with much to prove. While the Reds have the edge statistically and are favored to win, the Nationals’ potential for an upset cannot be overlooked, especially with a solid performance from Corbin on the mound. Fans should prepare for an exciting evening of baseball at Nationals Park.