At Progressive Field, in what has become an all-too-familiar narrative for the Minnesota Twins, they suffered yet another stinging defeat, blowing a three-run lead to fall 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians. Griffin Jax, tasked with securing a win, surrendered a game-winning two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth inning.
This latest setback extends the Twins' dismal run, having lost 18 of their last 27 games. This skid has further complicated their postseason hopes, reducing their grip on the third AL wild-card spot to a mere 1 1/2 games. Just a month ago, FanGraphs pegged the Twins' postseason odds at a robust 95.4%. That optimism has since dwindled, now resting at a shaky 76.4%.
Pablo López aptly summarized the team's dire straits: "Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow." The need for immediate improvement is acute, as underscored by Rocco Baldelli: "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together."
Indeed, the Twins have struggled mightily on offense. In 12 of their last 27 games, they failed to score more than three runs. During this stretch, they’ve batted a pedestrian .236, with an alarming .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. Bases empty, the Twins hit just .272, placing them among the worst in the league in this scenario.
The bullpen, once a pillar of strength with a 3.84 ERA and a top-ten league ranking in win probability added (plus-3.41) over their first 123 games, has faltered. Over the past 27 games, the bullpen’s ERA ballooned to 5.47, and their win probability added plummeted to a league-worst minus-2.75.
"It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff," said Griffin Jax, summing up the bullpen's current state. Meanwhile, the rest of the rotation has posted a concerning 6.07 ERA and averaged just 4.38 innings per start over the same period.
The rotation has had to shoulder this burden while playing 17 games in the last 18 days, a grueling schedule that's undoubtedly contributed to their current form. Despite holding leads in the seventh inning or later in five of their last 18 losses, or being tied in two others, the Twins haven't been able to close out games.
To shore up their pitching staff, the Twins claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin, who had a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances, offers some versatility. As Derek Falvey put it, "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help."
Adding to the sense of urgency, both the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners are just two games behind the Twins in the standings. Fortunately, the Twins hold crucial tiebreakers over both teams, a slim advantage that might prove pivotal. The Tigers have been particularly formidable, going 23-10 in their last 33 games, while the Twins have struggled to find their rhythm.
There is a sliver of hope on the horizon with Max Kepler expected to return, and Byron Buxton, along with Carlos Correa, showing signs of life. This month, the duo has gone 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer, potentially igniting an offensive resurgence the team sorely needs.
As the Twins navigate these turbulent waters, Rocco Baldelli sums up the team’s mindset: "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this." The road ahead is challenging, but the Twins must coalesce quickly to salvage their postseason aspirations.